%0 Generic %A Carvalho Malta, Deborah %A Andrade, Silvânia Suely Caribé de Araújo %A Oliveira, Taís Porto %A de Moura, Lenildo %A Prado, Rogério Ruscitto do %A Souza, Maria de Fátima Marinho de %D 2019 %T Probability of premature death for chronic non-communicable diseases, Brazil and Regions, projections to 2025 %U https://scielo.figshare.com/articles/dataset/Probability_of_premature_death_for_chronic_non-communicable_diseases_Brazil_and_Regions_projections_to_2025/7941944 %R 10.6084/m9.figshare.7941944.v1 %2 https://scielo.figshare.com/ndownloader/files/14784524 %2 https://scielo.figshare.com/ndownloader/files/14784530 %2 https://scielo.figshare.com/ndownloader/files/14784536 %2 https://scielo.figshare.com/ndownloader/files/14784539 %2 https://scielo.figshare.com/ndownloader/files/14784542 %K Chronic disease. Neoplasm. Diabetes mellitus. Respiratory tract diseases. Mortality %K premature. Time series studies %X

ABSTRACT: Objective: Objective: To analyze the mortality trends for Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases (NCDs) in the period 2000-2013 and its probability of death until 2025. Method: time series analysis of mortality from cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes and chronic respiratory disease, with correction for ill-defined causes and underreporting of deaths and calculation of probability of death. Results: There was an average decline of 2.5% per year in all four major NCDs in Brazil. There was a decline in all regions and federal units. The reduced likelihood of death by 30% in 2000 to 26.1% in 2013 and expected decline to 20.5% in 2025. Conclusion: From the trend of reduction is expected to reach Brazil reducing overall goal 25% by 2025.

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