Probability of premature death for chronic non-communicable diseases, Brazil and Regions, projections to 2025

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posted on 2019-04-03, 02:48 authored by Deborah Carvalho Malta, Silvânia Suely Caribé de Araújo Andrade, Taís Porto Oliveira, Lenildo de Moura, Rogério Ruscitto do Prado, Maria de Fátima Marinho de Souza

ABSTRACT: Objective: Objective: To analyze the mortality trends for Chronic Noncommunicable Diseases (NCDs) in the period 2000-2013 and its probability of death until 2025. Method: time series analysis of mortality from cardiovascular diseases, cancer, diabetes and chronic respiratory disease, with correction for ill-defined causes and underreporting of deaths and calculation of probability of death. Results: There was an average decline of 2.5% per year in all four major NCDs in Brazil. There was a decline in all regions and federal units. The reduced likelihood of death by 30% in 2000 to 26.1% in 2013 and expected decline to 20.5% in 2025. Conclusion: From the trend of reduction is expected to reach Brazil reducing overall goal 25% by 2025.