Spatial modeling of fires: a predictive tool for La Primavera Forest, Jalisco Mexico

Abstract The interaction of various elements of socioeconomic, political and cultural nature, influenced by landscape and climatic factors, are important aspects of fire regimes. Space models that integrate these elements and factors help to more accurately predict potential fire areas. The Protected Area Wildlife La Primavera (APFFLP) is the main regulator of the climate of the Guadalajara metropolitan area, and forest fires frequently occur there. These represent a challenge for science and technology to develop methodologies that help predict forest fires. This study involves the construction of a spatial model that helps identify potential areas of fire in that area. The model integrates meteorological variables, landscape, fuels, anthropogenic and / or causality, and historical occurrences of fires during the period 1998-2012. According to the model, the variables that determine the areas of greatest fire potential are: slope (landscape), relative humidity (weather), vegetation type (causality) and land use (anthropogenic). The model predicts a large area with high potential for fire, located in the central and northwest APFFLP polygon; also, there are small, isolated potential zones in the eastern part of the polygon. The information developed by this study could support the generation of local risk maps, thereby optimizing the actions of fire management and restoration of the La Primavera forest.