The sector elasticities of Brazilian exports: an empirical analysis for the period 1999-2013

Abstract The objective of this study is to analyze the performance of Brazilian exports of primary commodities and manufactures for the Asian, NAFTA, European Union and MERCOSUR countries between 1999 and 2013. From an extension of the Imperfect Substitutes Model, elaborated by Goldstein and Khan (1978), the Error Correction Model (ECM) was used to determine the short- and long-term elasticities. The results show that in the trade with these blocks of countries, commodities are more sensitive to external income than to other variables considered in this study. As for manufactures, the results also point to a greater influence of the variable income, except for the block of Asian countries, where the variable relative price seems to be the most important determinant and that exports of manufactured goods are more sensitive to changes in the exchange rate than exports of primary commodities.

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