Differences in negative predictive value of prostate MRI based in men with suspected or known cancer

Abstract Objective: To compare the negative predictive value (NPV) of multiparametric MRI for Gleason score (GS) ≥ 3+4 cancer and evaluate predictors of these tumors in men with suspected disease and under active surveillance (AS). Materials and Methods: This retrospective study included 38 men with suspected prostate cancer and 38 under AS with scans assigned PI-RADS v2 scores 1 or 2 between May 2016 and September 2017. Biopsy results were no cancer, GS = 3+3, or GS ≥ 3+4. Pre-MRI PSA, gland volume, and PSA density were recorded. Chi-square, equality of proportions, and logistic regressions were used to analyze the data. Results: Intermediate to high-grade cancer was found in 12.8% (95% CI = 2.3-23.3) and 35.9% (95% CI = 20.8-50.9) of men with suspected cancer, and under AS (p = 0.02), respectively. The NPV for GS ≥ 3+4 were 87.2% (suspected cancer; 76.7-97.7) and 64.1% (AS; 49.0-79.2). In neither group PSA significantly predicted cancer grade (p = 0.75 and 0.63). Although it did not reach conventional statistical significance, PSA density was a good predictor of cancer grade in men with suspected disease (p = 0.06), but not under AS (p = 0.62). Conclusion: The NPV of multiparametric MRI for GS ≥ 3+4 is higher in men with suspected prostate cancer than in men under AS. PSA density ≤ 0.15 improved the prediction of intermediate to high-grade disease in patients without known cancer.