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Global shocks in emerging economies: An empirical investigation

posted on 2023-03-14, 07:54 authored by MAURO SAYAR FERREIRA, ANDRÉ CORDEIRO VALÉRIO

Resumo Shocks in commodity prices are viewed as a major driver of emerging economies’ business cycle. We show this is not the case for Brazil, Chile, Colombia, and Peru when a structural vector autoregressive model accounts for macro-finance linkages at world and domestic levels. The presence of a global financial variable modifies established results as it endogenously influences commodity prices. Global demand shocks have been the main external driver of the business cycle in Brazil, Chile, and Peru, while global economic uncertainty shocks have been the main international driver of the Colombian GDP.